Florida’s 14th District
U.S. House · FL-14
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-14 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%−1.2 | 44.2%+2.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll, 2 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Kathy Castor · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Kathy Castor | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mike Beltran | 45.6% | 25,850 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 16.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 16 51%
- Former district 14 31%
- Former district 15 18%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated