Florida’s 17th District

U.S. House · FL-17

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
FL-17	57.7%	42.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+13.4	54.5%−12.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.3% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Greg Steube · Republican

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Matthew Montavon	55.4%	27,610 votes
Republican primary	Greg Steube	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Greg Steube
source
Democrat Challenger

Matthew Montavon
source
Other Challenger

Quirk, Michael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 28.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.