Indiana’s 5th District
U.S. House · IN-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN-5 | 52.7% | 44.6% | 2.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+8.5 | 54.5%−9.9 | 1.2%+1.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.4% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Victoria Spartz · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | J.D. Ford | 42.5% | 17,608 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Victoria Spartz | 59.9% | 33,695 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 18.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated