Indiana’s 7th District

U.S. House · IN-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 50.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
IN-7	75.1%	24.6%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+20.6	44.2%−19.7	1.2%−0.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.2% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

André Carson · Democrat

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	André Carson	62.4%	44,849 votes
Republican primary	Patrick McAuley	84.4%	10,357 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 39.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 50.5 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.