Indiana’s 3rd District

U.S. House · IN-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-3	61.3%	37.6%	1.1%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+17.1	54.5%−17.0	1.2%−0.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.3% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Kelly Thompson	100.0%	21,146 votes
Republican primary	Marlin A. Stutzman	68.2%	39,730 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 33.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.