Indiana’s 1st District

U.S. House · IN-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
IN-1	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+5.5	44.2%−4.3	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.0% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Frank J. Mrvan · Democrat

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Frank J. Mrvan	80.2%	42,519 votes
Republican primary	Barb Regnitz	45.8%	13,007 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 8.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 20.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.