Indiana’s 4th District

U.S. House · IN-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-4	61.1%	37.1%	1.8%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+16.9	54.5%−17.4	1.2%+0.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Jim Baird · Republican

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Drew Cox	30.4%	7,550 votes
Republican primary	Jim Baird	60.5%	37,855 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 33.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 24.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.