Indiana’s 8th District

U.S. House · IN-8

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-8	64.2%	35.6%	0.2%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+20.0	54.5%−18.9	1.2%−1.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	1.9% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Mark Messmer · Republican

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Mary Allen	66.7%	18,816 votes
Republican primary	Mark Messmer	100.0%	52,249 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 38.5 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 28.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.