Indiana’s 9th District

U.S. House · IN-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-9	60.8%	38.9%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+16.5	54.5%−15.6	1.2%−0.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Erin Houchin · Republican

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Brad A. Meyer	37.9%	12,788 votes
Republican primary	Erin Houchin	100.0%	51,165 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Erin Houchin
source
Democrat Challenger

Brad A. Meyer
source
Other Challenger

Taylor, Floyd

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 31.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 21.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.