Indiana’s 2nd District

U.S. House · IN-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-2	59.1%	40.7%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+14.8	54.5%−13.8	1.2%−1.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.0% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Rudy Yakym · Republican

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Jamee Decio	72.1%	18,142 votes
Republican primary	Rudy Yakym	100.0%	41,228 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 28.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 18.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.