Federal Forecast
Leading: Liberal, with 231 of 343 projected seats and a >99% chance of a majority.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 231 | 221–242 | >99% |
| Conservative | 79 | 71–90 | <1% |
| Bloc Quebecois | 22 | 21–24 | <1% |
| NDP | 9 | 5–9 | <1% |
| Green | 2 | 2–2 | <1% |
172 seats for a majority, out of 343 · 299 polls, 50,000 simulations
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current House Composition
Seats — 343 total
- Liberal 173
- Conservative 138
- Bloc Quebecois 21
- NDP 5
- Green 1
- Vacant 5
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 47.0% | +0.5 pts | >99% |
| Conservative | 30.4% | +1.1 pts | <1% |
| Bloc Quebecois | 6.3% | +0.6 pts | <1% |
| NDP | 11.8% | −1.3 pts | <1% |
| Green | 2.4% | −0.1 pts | <1% |
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
Riding map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All ridings
All 343 ridings, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Riding | Province | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Newfoundland | NL | Liberal | 44.5% | 1.2 pts | 66% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Niagara West | ON | Conservative | 42.9% | 1.2 pts | 53% | Hold |
| Windsor West | ON | Conservative | 30.5% | 1.3 pts | 56% | Hold |
| Richmond Hill South | ON | Liberal | 43.6% | 1.3 pts | 63% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Simcoe--Grey | ON | Liberal | 42.5% | 1.4 pts | 52% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Elgin--St. Thomas--London South | ON | Liberal | 42.3% | 1.4 pts | 69% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola | BC | Liberal | 43.6% | 1.5 pts | 54% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Parry Sound--Muskoka | ON | Conservative | 42.7% | 1.5 pts | 68% | Hold |
| Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt | ON | Liberal | 40.8% | 1.5 pts | 74% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Skeena--Bulkley Valley | BC | NDP | 39.0% | 1.5 pts | 71% | Conservative → NDP |
| Lethbridge | AB | Liberal | 39.5% | 1.6 pts | 78% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Wellington--Halton Hills North | ON | Liberal | 43.6% | 1.6 pts | 79% | Conservative → Liberal |
| North Island--Powell River | BC | NDP | 32.3% | 1.7 pts | 76% | Conservative → NDP |
| Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk | ON | Conservative | 39.3% | 1.7 pts | 76% | Hold |
| Calgary Midnapore | AB | Conservative | 47.5% | 1.8 pts | 57% | Hold |
| Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte | ON | Liberal | 43.5% | 1.8 pts | 78% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North | ON | Conservative | 44.1% | 1.9 pts | 87% | Hold |
| Middlesex--London | ON | Conservative | 43.2% | 2.0 pts | 89% | Hold |
| Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies | BC | Conservative | 44.3% | 2.1 pts | 84% | Hold |
| Saint John--St. Croix | NB | Liberal | 45.3% | 2.1 pts | 74% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Edmonton Griesbach | AB | NDP | 36.6% | 2.1 pts | 69% | Conservative → NDP |
| Shefford | QC | Bloc Quebecois | 39.8% | 2.3 pts | 57% | Hold |
| London--Fanshawe | ON | Conservative | 32.0% | 2.4 pts | 94% | Hold |
| Fundy Royal | NB | Conservative | 43.8% | 2.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Montmorency--Charlevoix | QC | Conservative | 35.2% | 2.4 pts | 72% | Hold |
| Elmwood--Transcona | MB | NDP | 35.3% | 2.6 pts | 80% | Conservative → NDP |
| Saskatoon West | SK | Conservative | 40.0% | 2.7 pts | 85% | Hold |
| Longueuil--Saint-Hubert | QC | Liberal | 40.9% | 2.8 pts | 77% | Hold |
| Terrebonne | QC | Liberal | 48.1% | 2.8 pts | 77% | Hold |
| Richmond--Arthabaska | QC | Conservative | 36.0% | 2.9 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Huron--Bruce | ON | Conservative | 43.7% | 3.0 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes | ON | Liberal | 43.5% | 3.1 pts | 95% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Oshawa | ON | Liberal | 42.3% | 3.1 pts | 97% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Repentigny | QC | Bloc Quebecois | 41.5% | 3.2 pts | 83% | Hold |
| Vancouver East | BC | NDP | 43.7% | 3.2 pts | 86% | Hold |
| Long Range Mountains | NL | Liberal | 43.8% | 3.3 pts | 98% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Abbotsford--South Langley | BC | Liberal | 38.2% | 3.3 pts | 94% | Conservative → Liberal |
| York Centre | ON | Conservative | 45.4% | 3.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Perth--Wellington | ON | Conservative | 43.5% | 3.6 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill | ON | Conservative | 45.8% | 3.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations | ON | Conservative | 44.2% | 3.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Saanich--Gulf Islands | BC | Green | 39.1% | 3.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Cowichan--Malahat--Langford | BC | NDP | 32.3% | 3.8 pts | 44% | Conservative → NDP |
| Lanark--Frontenac | ON | Liberal | 44.7% | 3.8 pts | 98% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee | BC | Liberal | 46.2% | 3.9 pts | 98% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Bowmanville--Oshawa North | ON | Liberal | 44.8% | 4.0 pts | 99% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake | ON | Liberal | 44.2% | 4.0 pts | 99% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Langley Township--Fraser Heights | BC | Liberal | 46.9% | 4.1 pts | 97% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan | AB | Conservative | 39.4% | 4.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound | ON | Conservative | 43.6% | 4.3 pts | >99% | Hold |