Calgary East
Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary East | 48.8% | 42.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 41.0%+7.8 | 42.7%−0.4 | 5.9%−2.1 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+1.8 | 30.4%+11.9 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jasraj Hallan · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 28.5 points, with 60.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 6.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasraj Hallan Elected | Conservative | 32,490 | 60.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Priti Obhrai-Martin | Liberal | 17,062 | 31.5 | Communication Strategist Consultant |
| Jennifer Geha | NDP | 2,092 | 3.9 | Unemployed |
| Harry Dhillon | PPC | 908 | 1.7 | Driving Instructor |
| Carey Rutherford | Green | 664 | 1.2 | Publisher |
| Garry Dirk | Other | 321 | 0.6 | Pastor |
| Jonathan Trautman | Other | 137 | 0.3 | Shipper |
| Other candidates | 467 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calgary Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Midnapore Conservative, toss-up
- Calgary Shepard Conservative, toss-up
- Calgary Heritage Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Confederation Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary McKnight Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated