Calgary McKnight

Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Calgary McKnight	62.7%	30.7%	3.5%	1.7%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+21.7	42.7%−12.0	5.9%−2.4	1.8%−0.1
National averageCanada	47.0%+15.6	30.4%+0.3	11.8%−8.3	2.1%−0.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 55.7% Other languages (French included) 44.3%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Dalwinder Gill · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 3.1 points, with 56.5% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 31.9 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Dalwinder Gill Elected	Conservative	20,863	48.4	Realtor
George Chahal	Liberal	19,546	45.4	Parliamentarian
Arlington Antonio Santiago	NDP	1,204	2.8	Screening Officer
Najeeb Butt	PPC	323	0.7	Realtor
Evelyn Tanaka	Green	273	0.6	Project Manager
Benjamin Cridland	Other	162	0.4	Warehouse Supervisor
Syed Hasnain	Other	107	0.2	Accountant
Other candidates		618	1.4

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.