Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 72%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | 44.2% | 40.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−4.4 | 34.4%+5.7 | 5.4%−1.1 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−2.8 | 30.4%+9.8 | 11.8%−7.5 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Tony Baldinelli · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 4.2 points, with 67.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Baldinelli Elected | Conservative | 29,774 | 48.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Andrea Kaiser | Liberal | 27,199 | 44.5 | Winemaker |
| Shannon Mitchell | NDP | 2,335 | 3.8 | Constituency Assistant |
| Celia Taylor | Green | 518 | 0.8 | Legal Information Specialist |
| Dinah Althorpe | PPC | 481 | 0.8 | Student |
| Daniel Shakhmundes | Other | 160 | 0.3 | Chief Technology Officer |
| Yawar Anwar | Other | 128 | 0.2 | Real Estate Agent |
| Other candidates | 467 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St. Catharines Liberal, safe seat
- Niagara South Liberal, toss-up
- Niagara West Conservative, toss-up
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated