Markham—Unionville
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 56%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markham—Unionville | 46.4% | 41.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−2.2 | 34.4%+7.3 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−0.6 | 30.4%+11.4 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Michael Ma · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 3.6 points, with 63.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ma Elected | Conservative | 27,055 | 50.4 | Business Owner |
| Peter Yuen | Liberal | 25,133 | 46.8 | Former Police Officer |
| Sameer Qureshi | NDP | 723 | 1.3 | Student |
| Elvin Kao | Green | 503 | 0.9 | Product Manager |
| Other candidates | 320 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Richmond Hill South Liberal, toss-up
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Conservative, toss-up
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough North Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated