Richmond Hill South
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 63% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Hill South | 43.6% | 43.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−4.9 | 34.4%+8.7 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−3.4 | 30.4%+12.8 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Vincent Ho · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.8 points, with 63.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Ho Elected | Conservative | 30,615 | 51.8 | Lawyer |
| Majid Jowhari | Liberal | 26,009 | 44.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Ebrahim Astaraki | NDP | 1,054 | 1.8 | Education Consultant |
| Alison Lam | Green | 495 | 0.8 | Student |
| Joshua Sideris | PPC | 244 | 0.4 | Founding Engineer |
| Yan Wang | Independent | 124 | 0.2 | Manager |
| Juni Yeung | Other | 43 | 0.1 | Interpreter |
| Other candidates | 530 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Thornhill Conservative, safe seat
- Markham—Unionville Liberal, toss-up
- Don Valley North Liberal, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Conservative, toss-up
- Willowdale Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated