Bowmanville—Oshawa North
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 73%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowmanville—Oshawa North | 44.8% | 40.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−3.8 | 34.4%+6.4 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−2.2 | 30.4%+10.4 | 11.8%−7.8 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jamil Jivani · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 4.2 points, with 69.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamil Jivani Elected | Conservative | 35,232 | 49.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Bridget Girard | Liberal | 32,214 | 45.2 | Retired Educator |
| Elenor Marano | NDP | 2,032 | 2.9 | Student |
| Julie Dietrich | Green | 546 | 0.8 | Pet Care |
| Pranay Gunti | Independent | 264 | 0.4 | Information Technology Professional |
| Thomas Zekveld | Other | 155 | 0.2 | Farm Manager |
| Clint Cole | Other | 143 | 0.2 | Paralegal |
| Ghuzna Imam | Other | 134 | 0.2 | Self-Employed |
| Adam Smith | Other | 68 | 0.1 | Retail |
| Other candidates | 503 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oshawa Liberal, toss-up
- Whitby Liberal, safe seat
- Ajax Liberal, safe seat
- Pickering—Brooklin Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated