Oshawa
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oshawa | 42.3% | 39.2% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−6.3 | 34.4%+4.8 | 5.4%−0.2 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−4.8 | 30.4%+8.8 | 11.8%−6.6 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Rhonda Kirkland · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 5.2 points, with 64.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhonda Kirkland Elected | Conservative | 32,131 | 47.8 | Educational Therapist |
| Isaac Ransom | Liberal | 28,653 | 42.6 | Corporate Affairs |
| Sara Labelle | NDP | 5,112 | 7.6 | Charge Medical Laboratory Technologist |
| Katherine Mathewson | Green | 804 | 1.2 | Native Plant Garden Designer |
| Other candidates | 520 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Whitby Liberal, safe seat
- Bowmanville—Oshawa North Liberal, toss-up
- Ajax Liberal, safe seat
- Pickering—Brooklin Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated