Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | 63.5% | 22.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+14.9 | 34.4%−11.7 | 5.4%−0.6 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+16.5 | 30.4%−7.6 | 11.8%−7.0 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Gary Anandasangaree · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 32.1 points, with 65.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 40.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Anandasangaree Elected | Liberal | 35,295 | 63.6 | Lawyer |
| Suchita Jalan | Conservative | 17,485 | 31.5 | Real Estate Broker |
| Kingsley Kwok | NDP | 1,772 | 3.2 | Registered Respiratory Therapist |
| Troy Rife | Green | 633 | 1.1 | Student |
| Other candidates | 319 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough North Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Woburn Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Southwest Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated