Scarborough Southwest
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 54.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough Southwest | 68.5% | 13.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+19.9 | 34.4%−20.7 | 5.4% | 1.8%+1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+21.5 | 30.4%−16.7 | 11.8%−6.4 | 2.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Doly Begum · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 30.8 points, with 63.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 54.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Blair Elected | Liberal | 33,495 | 61.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Asm Tarun | Conservative | 16,652 | 30.4 | Family Physician |
| Fatima Shaban | NDP | 2,730 | 5.0 | Administrative Coordinator |
| Amanda Cain | Green | 754 | 1.4 | Communications Consultant |
| Michael Poulin | PPC | 567 | 1.0 | IT Project Manager |
| Imran Khan | Other | 165 | 0.3 | Broker of Record |
| Christine Nugent | Other | 113 | 0.2 | College Instructor |
| Other candidates | 263 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Beaches—East York Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Woburn Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated