Don Valley West
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Valley West | 62.5% | 24.5% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+13.9 | 34.4%−10.0 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+15.5 | 30.4%−5.9 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Robert Oliphant · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 29.2 points, with 68.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 38.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Oliphant Elected | Liberal | 36,744 | 62.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Robert Pierce | Conservative | 19,480 | 33.2 | Investment Counsellor |
| Linnea Löfström-Abary | NDP | 1,382 | 2.4 | Student |
| Sheena Sharp | Green | 616 | 1.0 | Architect |
| Bahira Abdulsalam | Independent | 442 | 0.8 | Engineer |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence Liberal, safe seat
- Beaches—East York Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley North Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated