Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East | 56.6% | 28.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+8.0 | 34.4%−5.5 | 5.4%−0.6 | 1.8%+0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+9.6 | 30.4%−1.5 | 11.8%−7.0 | 2.1%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Salma Zahid · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 19.0 points, with 61.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 27.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salma Zahid Elected | Liberal | 27,557 | 56.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Belent Mathew | Conservative | 18,307 | 37.7 | Office Manager |
| Alyson Koa | NDP | 1,565 | 3.2 | Communications Specialist |
| Peter Koubakis | PPC | 659 | 1.4 | Meat Cutter |
| Other candidates | 488 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough Southwest Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Woburn Liberal, safe seat
- Beaches—East York Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley North Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated