Scarborough—Woburn
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough—Woburn | 59.7% | 25.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+11.1 | 34.4%−9.4 | 5.4%−0.5 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+12.7 | 30.4%−5.3 | 11.8%−6.9 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Michael Coteau · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 26.0 points, with 59.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 34.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Coteau Elected | Liberal | 25,281 | 59.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Reddy Muttukuru | Conservative | 14,291 | 33.8 | Self-Employed |
| George Wedge | NDP | 1,466 | 3.5 | Senior Quality Assurance Technician |
| Gianne Broughton | Green | 499 | 1.2 | Caregiver |
| Amina Bhaiyat | Independent | 181 | 0.4 | Homemaker |
| Ayub Sipra | Other | 150 | 0.4 | Realtor |
| Other candidates | 387 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough North Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Southwest Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated