Niagara South
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 64%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara South | 43.3% | 39.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−5.3 | 34.4%+4.5 | 5.4%−0.7 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−3.7 | 30.4%+8.6 | 11.8%−7.1 | 2.1%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Fred Davies · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 3.9 points, with 67.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davies Elected | Conservative | 36,702 | 47.6 | Entrepreneur |
| Vance Badawey | Liberal | 33,708 | 43.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Chantal McCollum | NDP | 4,307 | 5.6 | Lawyer |
| Peter Taras | PPC | 1,147 | 1.5 | Self-Employed |
| Natashia Bergen | Green | 683 | 0.9 | Horticulture Entrepreneur |
| David Vedova | Other | 216 | 0.3 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 423 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Liberal, toss-up
- St. Catharines Liberal, safe seat
- Niagara West Conservative, toss-up
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated