Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | 45.8% | 39.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−2.8 | 34.4%+5.3 | 5.4%−1.2 | 1.8%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.3 | 30.4%+9.3 | 11.8%−7.6 | 2.1%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ned Kuruc · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 2.2 points, with 69.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 6.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Kuruc Elected | Conservative | 32,857 | 48.3 | Mortgage Agent |
| Chad Collins | Liberal | 31,378 | 46.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Nayla Mithani | NDP | 2,471 | 3.6 | Project Manager |
| Jim Boutsikakis | PPC | 762 | 1.1 | Business Owner |
| Other candidates | 573 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Burlington Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville East Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated