Burlington
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlington | 55.1% | 31.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+6.5 | 34.4%−2.7 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.1 | 30.4%+1.3 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Karina Gould · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 15.2 points, with 76.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 23.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karina Gould Elected | Liberal | 43,593 | 55.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Emily Brown | Conservative | 31,686 | 40.3 | Professor |
| Michael Beauchemin | NDP | 1,549 | 2.0 | Sales Support |
| Kyle Hutton | Green | 595 | 0.8 | Digital and Data Organizer |
| Michael Bator | PPC | 523 | 0.7 | Software Engineer |
| Ocean Marshall | Other | 105 | 0.1 | Unemployed |
| Paul Harper | Other | 75 | 0.1 | Engineer |
| Other candidates | 462 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville East Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated