Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | 55.4% | 28.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+6.9 | 34.4%−6.4 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.4 | 30.4%−2.4 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
John-Paul Danko · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 19.2 points, with 73.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 27.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John-Paul Danko Elected | Liberal | 38,970 | 55.8 | Engineer |
| Erika Alexander | Conservative | 25,547 | 36.6 | Public Speaker |
| Roberto Henriquez | NDP | 3,648 | 5.2 | Lawyer |
| Georgia Beauchemin | Green | 829 | 1.2 | Student |
| Ava Sharavi | PPC | 307 | 0.4 | Corrective Exercise Specialist |
| Jim Enos | Other | 163 | 0.2 | Civil Engineering Technologist |
| Other candidates | 362 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Burlington Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Conservative, toss-up
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated