Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North | 44.1% | 42.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+9.7 | 48.6%−6.2 | 5.4%−1.9 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+13.7 | 47.0%−4.6 | 11.8%−8.3 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dan Muys · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 9.4 points, with 76.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Muys Elected | Conservative | 35,246 | 52.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Chuck Phillips | Liberal | 28,915 | 42.9 | Consultant |
| Peter Werhun | NDP | 1,630 | 2.4 | Lawyer |
| Anita Payne | Green | 594 | 0.9 | Retired Educator |
| Nikita Mahood | PPC | 499 | 0.7 | Small Business Owner |
| Other candidates | 444 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
- Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Conservative, toss-up
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Liberal, safe seat
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated