Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations

Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario

Forecast of October 15, 2026

In the by-election, our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.7 points.

The by-election

Favourite

Liberal

86% chance of winning

Seat vacant, polling day not yet set
Larry Brock is leaving
Average lead: 7.7 points

Projected vote share

Liberal 48.6%

Conservative 41.6%

NDP 4.2%

Green 3.0%

PPC 2.7%

Why the by-election and the general election differ

In a general election, the Conservative Party would lead; in the by-election, the Liberal Party.

Further down, the projection assumes a general election, with every seat voting on the same day. Fewer people vote in a by-election, and the least motivated supporters are the ones who stay home, so the favourite can change.

Full by-election forecast

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Conservative 44.2%
Liberal 40.5%
NDP 3.8%
Green 2.3%
PPC 1.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

Compared with the average

	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Green
Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations	44.2%	40.5%	3.8%	2.3%
Provincial averageOntario	34.4%+9.8	48.6%−8.0	5.4%−1.6	1.8%+0.6
National averageCanada	30.4%+13.8	47.0%−6.5	11.8%−8.0	2.4%−0.1

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Language spoken most often at home	English 93.7% Other languages (French included) 6.3%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Current member

Larry Brock · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

Previous election (2025)

The Conservative Party won by 11.3 points, with 64.2% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 3.7 points.

Candidates and votes in 2025

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Larry Brock Elected	Conservative	34,501	52.4	Lawyer
Joy O'Donnell	Liberal	27,032	41.1	Certified Financial Planner
Anne Gajerski-Cauley	NDP	2,410	3.7	United Church of Canada Minister
Karleigh Csordas	Green	1,110	1.7	Customer Service Manager
Nicholas Xenos	PPC	392	0.6	IT Manager
Mike Clancy	Independent	148	0.2	Citizen Advocate Paralegal
Leslie Bory	Independent	120	0.2	Machinist
Clo Marie	Independent	80	0.1	Student

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Conservative, toss-up
Cambridge Liberal, competitive
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Liberal, safe seat
Haldimand—Norfolk Conservative, safe seat
Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026