Kitchener South—Hespeler
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | 45.6% | 39.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−3.0 | 34.4%+4.6 | 5.4%−1.3 | 1.8%+0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.4 | 30.4%+8.7 | 11.8%−7.7 | 2.4%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Matt Strauss · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 1.7 points, with 70.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 6.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Strauss Elected | Conservative | 28,973 | 47.7 | Physician |
| Valerie Bradford | Liberal | 27,945 | 46.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Lorne Bruce | NDP | 1,823 | 3.0 | Retail Clerk |
| Ethan Russell | Green | 1,208 | 2.0 | Student |
| Randall Williams | PPC | 386 | 0.6 | Commercial Truck Driver |
| Kathleen Dueck | Other | 96 | 0.2 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 360 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Guelph Liberal, safe seat
- Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Conservative, toss-up
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated