Guelph
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guelph | 54.3% | 22.1% | 10.8% | 4.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+5.8 | 34.4%−12.3 | 1.8%+9.1 | 5.4%−1.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.3 | 30.4%−8.3 | 2.4%+8.4 | 11.8%−7.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Dominique O'Rourke · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 24.0 points, with 72.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 32.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique O'Rourke Elected | Liberal | 36,406 | 54.7 | Communications Consultant |
| Gurvir Khaira | Conservative | 20,470 | 30.7 | Student |
| Anne-Marie Zajdlik | Green | 6,779 | 10.2 | Medical Doctor |
| Janice Folk-Dawson | NDP | 2,129 | 3.2 | Retired |
| Jeffrey Swackhammer | PPC | 498 | 0.7 | Personal Trainer |
| Elaine Baetz | Other | 132 | 0.2 | Office Worker |
| Michael Wassilyn | Independent | 117 | 0.2 | Pensioner |
| Yurii Yavorskyi | Other | 62 | 0.1 | Registrations Coordinator |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
- Burlington North—Milton West Liberal, safe seat
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated