Burlington North—Milton West
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlington North—Milton West | 52.1% | 35.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+3.5 | 34.4%+1.0 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.1 | 30.4%+5.0 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Adam van Koeverden · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 8.5 points, with 73.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 16.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Van Koeverden Elected | Liberal | 37,155 | 52.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Nadeem Akbar | Conservative | 31,172 | 44.0 | IT Consultant |
| Naveed Ahmed | NDP | 1,507 | 2.1 | Entrepreneur |
| Charles Zach | PPC | 607 | 0.9 | Retired Government Lobbyist |
| Other candidates | 371 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Milton East—Halton Hills South Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Streetsville Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville East Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
- Burlington Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Erin Mills Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated