Milton East—Halton Hills South
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton East—Halton Hills South | 47.7% | 39.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−0.9 | 34.4%+5.0 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+0.6 | 30.4%+9.0 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kristina Tesser Derksen · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 0.0 points, with 73.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 8.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristina Tesser Derksen Elected | Liberal | 32,178 | 48.0 | Lawyer |
| Parm Gill | Conservative | 32,157 | 48.0 | Entrepreneur |
| Muhammad Riaz Sahi | NDP | 1,029 | 1.5 | Lawyer |
| Susan Doyle | Green | 672 | 1.0 | Eco-Education Executive |
| Walter J. Hofman | PPC | 475 | 0.7 | Retired |
| Shahbaz Mahmood Khan | Independent | 174 | 0.3 | Real Estate Broker |
| Other candidates | 325 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Burlington North—Milton West Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Streetsville Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton South Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton West Liberal, competitive
- Mississauga—Erin Mills Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated