Mississauga—Erin Mills
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | 54.9% | 31.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+6.4 | 34.4%−3.4 | 5.4%−1.5 | 1.8%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.9 | 30.4%+0.7 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Iqra Khalid · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 15.6 points, with 66.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 23.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iqra Khalid Elected | Liberal | 33,448 | 55.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Milad Mikael | Conservative | 24,000 | 39.7 | Self-Employed |
| Ehab Mustapha | NDP | 1,311 | 2.2 | Innovation Advisor |
| Michael Bayer | PPC | 734 | 1.2 | Wealth Advisor |
| Sulaiman Khan | Green | 367 | 0.6 | Student |
| Michael Matulewicz | Independent | 179 | 0.3 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 446 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mississauga Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Streetsville Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville East Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga East—Cooksville Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton South Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated