Mississauga—Lakeshore
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | 51.7% | 35.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+3.2 | 34.4%+0.8 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+4.7 | 30.4%+4.8 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Charles Sousa · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 8.3 points, with 70.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 16.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sousa Elected | Liberal | 34,971 | 52.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Tom Ellard | Conservative | 29,416 | 43.8 | Project Manager |
| Evelyn Butler | NDP | 1,254 | 1.9 | Social Media Manager |
| Mary Kidnew | Green | 587 | 0.9 | Self-Employed |
| Fahad Rao | PPC | 334 | 0.5 | Public Works Construction Inspector |
| Carlton Darby | Independent | 122 | 0.2 | Accountant |
| Anna Di Carlo | Other | 113 | 0.2 | Relocation Counselor |
| Other candidates | 313 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mississauga Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga East—Cooksville Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Erin Mills Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville East Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated