Etobicoke Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke Centre | 53.1% | 34.9% | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+4.5 | 34.4%+0.5 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%−0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.0 | 30.4%+4.5 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Yvan Baker · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 9.5 points, with 68.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 18.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvan Baker Elected | Liberal | 36,186 | 53.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Ted Opitz | Conservative | 29,713 | 43.7 | Consultant |
| Ji Won Jung | NDP | 1,611 | 2.4 | Designer |
| Other candidates | 560 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga East—Cooksville Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Malton Liberal, safe seat
- York South—Weston—Etobicoke Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke North Liberal, safe seat
- Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated