Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park | 54.9% | 20.7% | 10.1% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+6.4 | 5.4%+15.3 | 34.4%−24.3 | 1.8%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.9 | 11.8%+8.9 | 30.4%−20.3 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Karim Bardeesy · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 32.7 points, with 70.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 34.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karim Bardeesy Elected | Liberal | 36,439 | 55.5 | Executive Director, Public Policy Institute |
| Bhutila Karpoche | NDP | 15,003 | 22.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Wladyslaw Lizon | Conservative | 12,662 | 19.3 | Construction Project Manager |
| Anna Gorka | Green | 700 | 1.1 | Architect |
| Edward Fraser | Other | 184 | 0.3 | Magazine Editor |
| Rimmy Riarh | Other | 137 | 0.2 | Teaching Assistant |
| Terry Parker | Other | 96 | 0.1 | Community Activist |
| Lorne Gershuny | Other | 92 | 0.1 | Lawyer |
| Other candidates | 296 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Davenport Liberal, safe seat
- University—Rosedale Liberal, safe seat
- York South—Weston—Etobicoke Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
- Spadina—Harbourfront Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated