York South—Weston—Etobicoke
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York South—Weston—Etobicoke | 54.4% | 29.2% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+5.9 | 34.4%−5.2 | 5.4%+0.5 | 1.8%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.4 | 30.4%−1.2 | 11.8%−5.9 | 2.1%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ahmed Hussen · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 15.3 points, with 57.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 25.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmed Hussen Elected | Liberal | 24,663 | 54.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Nicolas Pham | Conservative | 17,746 | 39.3 | Lawyer |
| Louise James | NDP | 2,190 | 4.9 | Lawyer |
| Other candidates | 530 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Eglinton—Lawrence Liberal, safe seat
- Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park Liberal, safe seat
- Davenport Liberal, safe seat
- Humber River—Black Creek Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke North Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated