Eglinton—Lawrence
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eglinton—Lawrence | 48.3% | 38.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−0.2 | 34.4%+3.9 | 5.4%−2.6 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+1.3 | 30.4%+7.9 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Vince Gasparro · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 1.5 points, with 70.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Gasparro Elected | Liberal | 29,949 | 49.0 | Banker |
| Karen Stintz | Conservative | 29,061 | 47.5 | Chief Executive Officer |
| Allison Tanzola | NDP | 996 | 1.6 | Student |
| Wayne Chechuevskiy | Green | 429 | 0.7 | Canadian Armed Forces Reservist |
| Timothy Gleeson | PPC | 326 | 0.5 | Retired Investor |
| Other candidates | 422 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
- York Centre Conservative, toss-up
- York South—Weston—Etobicoke Liberal, safe seat
- Davenport Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
- University—Rosedale Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated