York Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York Centre | 45.4% | 42.0% | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+10.9 | 48.6%−6.6 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%−0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+15.0 | 47.0%−5.0 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Roman Baber · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 12.0 points, with 63.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Baber Elected | Conservative | 26,110 | 54.1 | Lawyer |
| Ya'ara Saks | Liberal | 20,318 | 42.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Yusuf Ulukanligil | NDP | 1,191 | 2.5 | Interpreter |
| Other candidates | 643 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Willowdale Liberal, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence Liberal, safe seat
- Humber River—Black Creek Liberal, safe seat
- York South—Weston—Etobicoke Liberal, safe seat
- Thornhill Conservative, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated