Humber River—Black Creek
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humber River—Black Creek | 54.8% | 26.6% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+6.2 | 34.4%−7.9 | 5.4%+0.2 | 1.8%+0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.8 | 30.4%−3.8 | 11.8%−6.2 | 2.1%+0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Judy A. Sgro · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 19.6 points, with 55.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 28.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judy Sgro Elected | Liberal | 21,357 | 54.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Bijay Paudel | Conservative | 13,745 | 35.3 | Business Development Manager |
| Matias de Dovitiis | NDP | 2,449 | 6.3 | Civil Servant |
| Marek Jasinski | PPC | 621 | 1.6 | Chief Technology Officer |
| Jeanne McGuire | Other | 226 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 504 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Etobicoke North Liberal, safe seat
- York Centre Conservative, toss-up
- York South—Weston—Etobicoke Liberal, safe seat
- Vaughan—Woodbridge Conservative, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence Liberal, safe seat
- Thornhill Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated