Thornhill
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thornhill | 57.0% | 30.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+22.5 | 48.6%−17.8 | 5.4%−0.9 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+26.6 | 47.0%−16.2 | 11.8%−7.3 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Melissa Lantsman · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 34.8 points, with 68.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 26.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Lantsman Elected | Conservative | 44,419 | 65.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Liane Kotler | Liberal | 20,873 | 30.9 | Journalist |
| William McCarty | NDP | 833 | 1.2 | IT Coordinator |
| Amir Hart | PPC | 440 | 0.7 | Administrative Assistant |
| Dominic Piotrowski | Green | 353 | 0.5 | Plant Technician |
| Other candidates | 660 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Richmond Hill South Liberal, toss-up
- Willowdale Liberal, safe seat
- York Centre Conservative, toss-up
- Don Valley North Liberal, safe seat
- Humber River—Black Creek Liberal, safe seat
- Vaughan—Woodbridge Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated