Vaughan—Woodbridge
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | 51.0% | 37.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+16.5 | 48.6%−11.2 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+20.6 | 47.0%−9.6 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Michael Guglielmin · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 21.8 points, with 70.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 13.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Guglielmin Elected | Conservative | 40,422 | 59.6 | Business Executive |
| Francesco Sorbara | Liberal | 25,617 | 37.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Ali Bahman | NDP | 891 | 1.3 | Program Policy Analyst |
| Roman Yevseyev | PPC | 425 | 0.6 | Master Data Manager |
| Other candidates | 479 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Humber River—Black Creek Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton East Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke North Liberal, safe seat
- Thornhill Conservative, safe seat
- York Centre Conservative, toss-up
- Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated