Brampton—Chinguacousy Park
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | 48.0% | 35.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−0.6 | 34.4%+0.9 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%+1.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+1.0 | 30.4%+5.0 | 11.8%−7.8 | 2.1%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Shafqat Ali · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 4.4 points, with 63.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 12.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shafqat Ali Elected | Liberal | 21,532 | 48.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Tim Iqbal | Conservative | 19,591 | 44.0 | Analytics and Performance Improvement |
| Teresa Yeh | NDP | 1,173 | 2.6 | Teacher |
| Jayesh Brahmbhatt | PPC | 741 | 1.7 | Real Estate Salesperson |
| Mike Dancy | Green | 521 | 1.2 | Video Editor |
| Avi Dhaliwal | Independent | 328 | 0.7 | Executive Officer |
| Hafiz Muneeb Ahmad | Other | 194 | 0.4 | Civil Engineer |
| Other candidates | 472 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brampton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton East Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Malton Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton West Liberal, competitive
- Brampton South Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton North—Caledon Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated