Mississauga—Malton
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga—Malton | 52.5% | 33.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+3.9 | 34.4%−1.2 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%+1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.5 | 30.4%+2.9 | 11.8%−7.9 | 2.1%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Iqwinder Gaheer · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 11.0 points, with 61.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iqwinder Singh Gaheer Elected | Liberal | 26,793 | 52.9 | Attorney |
| Jaspreet Sandhu | Conservative | 21,202 | 41.9 | Payment Service Officer |
| Inderjeetsingh Ailsinghani | NDP | 1,290 | 2.5 | Senior Business Systems Consultant |
| Nathan Quinlan | PPC | 983 | 1.9 | Software Developer |
| Other candidates | 390 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mississauga East—Cooksville Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke North Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Brampton Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated