Mississauga Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga Centre | 53.0% | 32.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+4.5 | 34.4%−1.5 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.0 | 30.4%+2.5 | 11.8%−7.8 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Fares Al Soud · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 11.9 points, with 62.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 20.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fares Al Soud Elected | Liberal | 29,605 | 53.4 | Unemployed |
| Muhammad Ishaq | Conservative | 23,010 | 41.5 | Realtor |
| Brandon Nguyen | NDP | 1,502 | 2.7 | Court Reporter |
| Gurdeep Wolosz | PPC | 602 | 1.1 | Showroom Coordinator |
| Zulfiqar Ali | Independent | 257 | 0.5 | Driver |
| Other candidates | 454 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mississauga East—Cooksville Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Erin Mills Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Streetsville Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Malton Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated