Etobicoke North
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke North | 52.1% | 31.9% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+3.5 | 34.4%−2.5 | 5.4%−0.6 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.1 | 30.4%+1.5 | 11.8%−7.0 | 2.4%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
John Zerucelli · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 11.5 points, with 56.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 20.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zerucelli Elected | Liberal | 22,270 | 52.2 | Lawyer |
| Natalie Weed | Conservative | 17,359 | 40.7 | Managing Broker |
| Benjamin Abis | NDP | 1,354 | 3.2 | Retired |
| Andy D'Andrea | PPC | 846 | 2.0 | Engineer |
| Sarun Balaranjan | Green | 394 | 0.9 | Resident Physician |
| Neil Simon | Independent | 132 | 0.3 | Manager |
| Other candidates | 308 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Humber River—Black Creek Liberal, safe seat
- York South—Weston—Etobicoke Liberal, safe seat
- Etobicoke Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Malton Liberal, safe seat
- Vaughan—Woodbridge Conservative, safe seat
- York Centre Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated