Willowdale
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willowdale | 52.8% | 34.8% | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+4.2 | 34.4%+0.4 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%−0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.8 | 30.4%+4.4 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ali Ehsassi · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 9.4 points, with 60.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 18.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Ehsassi Elected | Liberal | 25,488 | 52.9 | Parliamentarian |
| James Lin | Conservative | 20,977 | 43.6 | Public Servant |
| Christy Kheirallah | NDP | 1,224 | 2.5 | Media Relations Officer |
| Other candidates | 465 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- York Centre Conservative, toss-up
- Don Valley North Liberal, safe seat
- Thornhill Conservative, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated