Don Valley North
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Valley North | 52.6% | 33.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+4.1 | 34.4%−1.2 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.6 | 30.4%+2.8 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Maggie Chi · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 10.8 points, with 63.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Chi Elected | Liberal | 25,822 | 52.8 | Policy Advisor |
| Joe Tay | Conservative | 20,546 | 42.0 | Online Radio Host |
| Naila Saeed | NDP | 1,191 | 2.4 | Child Care Operator |
| Andrew Armstrong | Green | 448 | 0.9 | Restaurant Supervisor |
| Xiaohua Gong | Independent | 260 | 0.5 | Media |
| Ivan Milivojevic | PPC | 260 | 0.5 | Technical Service Manager |
| Other candidates | 425 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Willowdale Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
- York Centre Conservative, toss-up
- Richmond Hill South Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated