Scarborough—Agincourt
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough—Agincourt | 53.7% | 33.7% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+5.1 | 34.4%−0.7 | 5.4%−0.7 | 1.8%−0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.7 | 30.4%+3.3 | 11.8%−7.1 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jean Yip · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 11.4 points, with 60.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 20.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Yip Elected | Liberal | 27,552 | 53.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Aris Movsessian | Conservative | 21,732 | 42.4 | Political Staffer |
| Dan Lovell | NDP | 1,449 | 2.8 | Secondary School Teacher |
| Other candidates | 469 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Don Valley North Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough North Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Woburn Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
- Willowdale Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated